气候变化下自然保护所面临的挑战——气候变化对滇西北及相关地区生态系统的潜在影响

2007年11月21日,大自然保护协会（TNC）气候变化专家Barry Baker博士应邀来到北京环境记者沙龙发表演讲。Barry Baker博士长期以来一直关注气候变化对大自然生态系统以及人类生存所带来的挑战。作为一个科学家,他和自己的工作小组一起深入云南横断山区、青海长江源区以及西藏、新疆等自然保护区进行考察、测量,以严谨、精湛的科学精神,     

An integrated approach to the toxicity assessment of Irish marine sediments: validation of established marine bioassays for the monitoring of Irish marine sediments

This paper describes the ecotoxicological evaluation of marine sediments from three sites around Ireland representative of a range of contaminant burdens. A comprehensive assessment of potential sediment toxicity requires the consideration of multiple exposure phases. In addition to the evaluation of multi-exposure phases the use of a battery of multi-trophic test species has been advocated by a number of researchers as testing of single or few organisms may not detect toxicants with a specific mode of action. The Microtox(R) solid phase test (SPT) and the 10-d acute amphipod test with Corophium volutator were used to assess whole sediment toxicity. Porewater and elutriates were assessed with the Microtox(R) acute test, the marine prasinophyte Tetraselmis suecica, and the marine copepod Tisbe battagliai. Solvent extracts were assayed with the Microtox(R) and T. battagliai acute tests. Alexandra Basin was identified as the most toxic site according to all tests, except the Microtox(R) SPT which identified the Dunmore East site as being more toxic. However, it was not possible to correlate the observed ecotoxicological effects with a specific and/or class of contaminants based on sediment chemistry alone. Therefore porewaters found to elicit significant toxicity (Dunmore East and Alexandra Basin) with the test battery were selected for further TIE assessment with T. battalgiai and the Microtox(R) system. The results of this study have important implications for risk assessment in estuarine and coastal waters in Ireland, where, at present the monitoring of sediment and water quality is predominantly reliant on chemical analysis alone.     

Water quality requirements for sustaining aquifer storage and recovery operations in a low permeability fractured rock aquifer

A changing climate and increasing urbanisation has driven interest in the use of aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) schemes as an environmental management tool to supplement conventional water resources. This study focuses on ASR with stormwater in a low permeability fractured rock aquifer and the selection of water treatment methods to prevent well clogging. In this study two different injection and recovery phases were trialed. In the first phase ~1380 m(3) of potable water was injected and recovered over four cycles. In the second phase ~3300 m(3) of treated stormwater was injected and ~2410 m(3) were subsequently recovered over three cycles. Due to the success of the potable water injection cycles, its water quality was used to set pre-treatment targets for harvested urban stormwater of ≤ 0.6 NTU turbidity, ≤ 1.7 mg/L dissolved organic carbon and ≤ 0.2 mg/L biodegradable dissolved organic carbon. A range of potential ASR pre-treatment options were subsequently evaluated resulting in the adoption of an ultrafiltration/granular activated carbon system to remove suspended solids and nutrients which cause physical and biological clogging. ASR cycle testing with potable water and treated stormwater demonstrated that urban stormwater containing variable turbidity (mean 5.5 NTU) and organic carbon (mean 8.3 mg/L) concentrations before treatment could be injected into a low transmissivity fractured rock aquifer and recovered for irrigation supplies. A small decline in permeability of the formation in the vicinity of the injection well was apparent even with high quality water that met turbidity and DOC but could not consistently achieve the BDOC criteria.     

Phosphorus and nitrogen in runoff after phosphorus- or nitrogen-based manure applications

Application of beef cattle () manure based on nitrogen (N) requirements of crops has resulted in elevated concentrations of soil test phosphorus (P) in surface soils, and runoff from this cropland can contribute to eutrophication of surface waters. We conducted a 3-yr field study (2005-2007) on a Lethbridge loam soil cropped to dryland barley () in southern Alberta, Canada to evaluate the effect of annual and triennial P-based and annual N-based feedlot manure on P and N in runoff. The manure was spring applied and incorporated. There was one unamended control plot. A portable rainfall simulator was used to generate runoff in the spring of each year after recent manure incorporation, and the runoff was analyzed for total P, total dissolved P, total particulate P, dissolved reactive P, total N, total dissolved N, total particulate N, NO-N, and NH-N. Annual or triennial P-based application resulted in significantly ( ≤ 0.05) lower (by 50 to 94%) concentrations or loads of mainly dissolved P fractions in runoff for some years compared with annual N-based application, and this was related to lower rates of annual manure P applied. For example, mean dissolved reactive P concentrations in 2006 and 2007 were significantly lower for the annual P-based (0.12-0.20 mg L) than for the annual N-based application (0.24-0.48 mg L), and mean values were significantly lower for the triennial P-based (0.06-0.13 mg L) than for the annual N-based application. In contrast, other P fractions in runoff were unaffected by annual P-based application. Our findings suggested no environmental benefit of annual P-based application over triennial P-based application with respect to P and N in runoff. Similar concentrations and loads of N fractions in runoff for the P- and N-based applications indicated that shifting to a P-based application would not significantly influence N in runoff.     

An agent-based model for simulating trading of multi-species fisheries quota

Individual transferable quotas (ITQs) are increasingly seen as a way to make fisheries more profitable and halt over-capitalisation. ITQs allocate to users of a resource a share of a total allowable catch (TAC) which they are free to use, lease, or sell. We outline an approach to modelling the effect of an ITQ system in a multi-species, multi-sector fishery and apply it to the Coral Reef Fin Fish Fishery (CRFFF) in Queensland, Australia. An ITQ model, based on the assumption that operators seek to maximize profits, simulates the use of tradeable quota units by operators in the fishery, taking account of the initial quota allocation to operators, seasonal fish prices and individual operator variable costs, their fishing efficiency and experience, and constraints on vessel movements. Rationalization of the fishery is predicted to occur under an ITQ system for the CRFFF, which will lead to reductions in effort, increases in profits, and changes over time in quota prices. The ecological consequences of transferable quota in the multi-species fishery are seen in the catch and discard levels of the less profitable species, even though a TAC was set. This had flow-on effects on biomass. For example, simulations showed that the TAC for the primary target species, coral trout, was used more fully than that for a less valuable target species, red throat emperor, and that this was achieved through increased discarding of red throat emperor. Catches of both coral trout and red throat emperor that were derived from the model were higher than those recently observed in the fishery. The effort predicted by the model, however, closely approximated the actual effort observed in the fishery following implementation of ITQ management.     

Coping with accelerating socio-technical systems

In 1997 a workshop was held on the subject of how to cope with accelerating technologies. These are industries such as aviation, air traffic control and biotechnology, amongst others, where the rate of technological development is significant. A number of papers were presented from a range of viewpoints and in a variety of different industrial contexts. The papers ranged from theoretical models to help understand the process of acceleration and its impact on organisational learning, to practical analyses of future potential risks in specific accelerating industries such as air traffic control. The aim of the papers and the workshop as a whole was to provide insight into the problems associated with accelerating technologies, and thereby derive measures to control or cope with such acceleration. The problems arising from acceleration, as predicted by the theoretical models and evidenced by experiences in accelerating industries (e.g. aviation) are manifold. Two examples of particular problems are unforeseen risks in an industry (a lack of forward vision), and a failure to learn adequately (i.e. in time) from incidents occurring in an organisation (a lack of constructive hindsight). There is also an incipient danger of society being driven by technology rather than being led by social needs. Even if each technology ultimately becomes ‘ultra-safe’, it will nevertheless have its own ‘event horizon’, limiting useful further progress. Each of the papers from the workshop is summarised and integrated into a three-part synopsis of the workshop. This covers the context of accelerating technologies, modelling their impacts, and deriving coping strategies. Four of the papers are included in their entirety as separate papers in their own right in this special issue of Safety Science.     

Establishing a Regional Monitoring Strategy: The Pacific Northwest Forest Plan

adaptive monitoring design. Adaptive monitoring design is an iterative process that refines the specifications for monitoring over time as a result of experience in implementing a monitoring program, assessing results, and interacting with users. An adaptive design therefore facilitates ecosystem management. We also discuss lessons of temporal and spatial scales raised by the consideration of a design for ecosystem management. Three additional issues—integration of information from different sources, institutional infrastructure, and the roles of individuals working in an interagency setting—are also identified, but not developed in detail.     

Gastroschisis and omphalocele: Prenatal diagnosis and perinatal management

Obstetric ultrasonography has made the prenatal diagnosis of gastroschisis and omphalocele more common. We present illustrative cases 2nd review the ultrasonographic features. Because of the increased risk of concomitant abnormalities (including trisomies) with omphalocele, full evaluation is indicated when this diagnosis is suspected. Recent perinatal approaches to delivery have favoured caesarean section. without scientific evidence that outcome is improved. Our experience. as well as a review of the literature, suggests that the outcome for vaginally delivered infants is acceptable. A prospective study of this question is needed.